Q22. Discuss the political developments in Maldives in the last two years. Should they be of any cause of concern to India?

Model Answer:

Introduction

The political landscape of the Maldives has witnessed significant developments in the last two years, characterized by changing leadership, shifts in alliances, and growing geopolitical tensions. These events have implications for regional stability and India’s strategic interests, considering the Maldives' proximity and its importance in the Indian Ocean.

Body

Political Developments in the Maldives (2022-2024):

• Presidential Election (2023): In 2023, the Maldives held its presidential elections, where incumbent President Ibrahim Solih, a member of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), faced competition from opposition candidates. Solih’s victory reflected the continuation of a policy of democratic governance and closer ties with India, but it also highlighted the growing political polarization in the country.
• Geopolitical Realignment: Over the last two years, the Maldives has seen increasing shifts in its foreign policy. While Solih has maintained strong ties with India, the opposition, led by figures like former President Abdulla Yameen, has expressed pro-China leanings, which could alter the balance of the country’s external alliances.
• Concerns Over China’s Influence: China’s influence in the Maldives, especially its involvement in infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative, has been a point of contention. There are concerns about debt traps and growing Chinese military presence in the region, which could impact India’s strategic interests.
• Internal Political Instability: The Maldives has also faced political instability, including corruption scandals and challenges to democratic processes. The opposition's accusations of authoritarianism against Solih’s government have created a politically charged environment.

Cause for Concern for India:

• Geopolitical Rivalry: Any shift towards China by a future Maldivian government could complicate India’s influence in the region, affecting India’s security interests in the Indian Ocean.
• Terrorism and Radicalization: The rise of political instability could create a fertile ground for radical elements to gain traction, which poses security concerns for India, particularly in terms of cross-border terrorism and regional radicalization.
• Strategic Maritime Significance: The Maldives controls important sea routes in the Indian Ocean. India’s security interests would be directly affected if foreign military presence, particularly China, becomes more pronounced in the region.

Conclusion

‍The political developments in the Maldives over the past two years, especially the potential shift in foreign policy and internal instability, are important for India to monitor closely. While the Maldivian government's pro-India stance is beneficial, any significant geopolitical shift could pose strategic challenges for India in the long term.

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