Study: Hindu Kush Himalaya region to face drier monsoon, but threat of climate hazards remains, Pg22

Key Highlights:

• The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region is projected to experience below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures during the upcoming monsoon season.
• This forecast is primarily attributed to the anticipated return of the El Niño weather phenomenon.
• The HKH Monsoon Outlook 2024, published by ICIMOD and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, warns of increased drought, heat stress, and reduced water availability.
• Despite drier conditions, the region faces heightened risks of floods, glacial lake outbursts (GLOFs), and landslides due to intense rainfall events and accelerated glacier melt.
• The HKH region, spanning 3,500 km across eight countries, is a source of 10 major Asian river basins, supporting two billion people.

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Detailed Insights:

• The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically suppresses monsoon rainfall in the Indian subcontinent.
• Multiple forecasting agencies, including SASCOF-34 and Copernicus Climate Change Service, project El Niño conditions to persist through the monsoon season.
• Lower winter snow persistence in the HKH region means a reduced seasonal water buffer, increasing reliance on monsoon rainfall, groundwater, and spring water.
• Rising temperatures are expected to accelerate glacier and snowmelt, leading to short-term spikes in river discharge and elevating GLOF risks.
• A possible emergence of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) later in the season might partially offset El Niño's drying effect, though its impact remains uncertain.
• The India Meteorological Department has also predicted a below-par monsoon for the country this year.
• The HKH region's vulnerability to climate-induced hazards is intensified by climate change, leading to more extreme weather events.

Key Concepts Involved:

• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting global weather.
• Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) Region: A vast mountain range spanning eight countries, known as the "Third Pole" due to its extensive glaciers and snow cover.
• Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF): A sudden release of water from a glacial lake, often caused by glacier melt, landslides, or seismic activity.
• Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): An irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, influencing rainfall patterns in surrounding regions.