Monsoon revived, but why there's cloud over the farm, Pg14

Key Highlights:

• The Southwest Monsoon revived significantly in July, narrowing the sowing gap for kharif crops despite a strengthening El Niño.
• June 2026 recorded 38% below normal rainfall, making it the sixth-driest June since 1901, with no low-pressure systems (LPS).
• July 2026 saw above-normal rainfall (2.4% above Long Period Average (LPA)) due to four active LPS, contrary to India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts.
• By August 7, the area sown under kharif crops was only 1.8% lower than the previous year, a substantial recovery from the 20.8% deficit in early July.
• Concerns persist for kharif yields in August-September and the upcoming rabi crops due to the potential for a "very strong" El Niño persisting until March 2027.
• The United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index reached a three-and-a-half-year high in July, primarily driven by rising vegetable oil prices.
• India holds substantial buffer stocks of rice, wheat, and pulses, which can be utilized to manage potential food inflation.

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Detailed Insights:

• Initial kharif sowing till July 6 showed a significant deficit, particularly for oilseeds (39.3%), pulses (21.8%), and cotton (23%).
• The deficient June rainfall was attributed to the absence of low-pressure systems (LPS), which typically bring rain.
• The July turnaround was due to four LPS that moved slowly and had longer durations, leading to 24 LPS-affected days compared to the normal 14.
• The IMD had forecast "most likely to be below normal" rainfall for July, making the actual above-normal rainfall a significant deviation.
• The full impact of El Niño on rainfall and temperatures typically has a lag of 1-2 months and can extend over several months.
• A prolonged and strong El Niño could lead to a relatively short and warm winter, negatively impacting yields of rabi crops like wheat, mustard, and potato.
• The rise in the FAO Food Price Index was largely driven by vegetable oils, with the vegetable oils index up 17.3% year-on-year.
• Increased international petroleum prices incentivize the diversion of palm, rapeseed, and soybean oil for biofuel production, contributing to higher vegetable oil prices.
• India's public godowns held 92.6 million tonnes of rice and wheat on July 1, significantly exceeding the required minimum of 41.1 million tonnes.

Key Concepts Involved:

• Southwest Monsoon: The primary rainy season in India, crucial for agriculture, occurring from June to September.
• Kharif Crops: Crops sown with the onset of the Southwest Monsoon, typically harvested in autumn (e.g., rice, maize, cotton, pulses).
• Rabi Crops: Crops sown in winter and harvested in spring (e.g., wheat, barley, mustard, potato).
• El Niño: A climate pattern characterized by the unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacting global weather.
• Low-Pressure Systems (LPS): Weather systems associated with cyclonic circulation that bring significant rainfall to the Indian subcontinent.
• Long Period Average (LPA): A benchmark representing the average rainfall over a specific period (e.g., 50 years), used to assess monsoon performance.
• India Meteorological Department (IMD): The principal agency responsible for meteorological observations, weather forecasting, and seismology in India.
• United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Food Price Index: A measure of the monthly change in international prices of a basket of food commodities.